Some Models for Ultimate Population Size Under Changed Fertility Schedule

Authors

  • Shruti & K.N.S. Yadava *Asstt. Professor in Statistics, UPRTOU, Allahabad ** Department of Statistics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi

Keywords:

Stable population, ultimate population size, Replacement level fertility, Age specific fertility rate, Net reproduction rate

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop some models for the projection of stationary population under various paths of fertility reduction. It has been found that models derived are the generalization of all most all the previous models developed by researchers on the similar problem. The projected population size obtained by the proposed models showed more or less consistent estimates with the others.

References

Coale,A.J. (1972), "The Growth and Structure of Human Populations : A Mathematical Investigation", Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.

Coal,A.J. and Demeny,P., (1966), "Regional Model Life Table and Stable Population", Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.

Keyfitz,N. (1971), "On the Momentum of Population Growth", Demography, Vol. 8, pp. 71-80.

Kumar,U. (1991), "Some Models for Migration and Population Growth", Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, BHU, Varanasi, India.

Kulkarni,P.M. (1976), "Growth of Population After Reduction in Fertility", Newsletter 11(1), Population Center Bangalore, India.

Lotka,A.J. (1939), “Theories analytique des associations bio-logiques Part II. Analyse demographique avee application particuliere a L’ Espece Humaine”, Actualities Scientifiques et Industrielles, No. 780, Paris: Herman and Cie.

Mitra,S. (1976), “Influence of Instantaneous Fertility Decline to Replacement Level on Population Growth : An Alternative Models”, Demography, Vol.13, pp. 513-519.

Pathak,K.B. and Ram,F. (1985), "Trends in Reproductive Values of the Females and Momentum of Population Growth : Analysis for the Major States of India ", IIPS, Mumbai, India.

Ryder,N.B. (1975), “Notes on stationary population”, Population Index, Vol. 41(1), pp.3-28.

Singh,S.N., Yadava,R.C. and Yadava,K.N.S. (1981a), “A Mutiregional Generalization of Keyfitz Momentum Formula Under a Less Drastic Fall in Fertility”, The Aligarh Journal of Statistics, Vol. 19 (1), pp. 59-68.

Singh,S.N., Yadava,R.C. and Yadava,K.N.S. (1981b), “A Simplified from of Keyfitz Momentum Formula Under a Less Drastic Fall of Fertility”, Journal of Indian Statistical Association, Vol.19, pp.171-176.

Yadava,K.N.S., Kumar,U. and Kushwaha,S.N.S. (1989), "Population Projection upto the Lower Limit of Reproductive Period Under Gradual Change in Fertility Schedule : Some Alternative Models", Demography India, Vol. 18, pp. 73-80.

Yadava,K.N.S., Yadava,S.N. and Sarin,D. (1996), "Population Growth Under Changed Fertility Schedule in Stablity Conditions", Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6(1), pp. 55-65.

Downloads

Published

2014-07-31

Issue

Section

Articles